That's All Folks, Thank You and Good Night
At last, the end is in sight. General George Casey, commander of the Multi-National force in Iraq, has outlined plans for the US to leave the country within 12 to 18 months. Gone is the ridiculous "Stay the course" policy, gone is the idea that the presence of US troops can solve Iraq's problems. Even though they may not say it, this represents an admission by the Bush administration that Iraq is lost and that the presence of US troops exacerbates the terrorist threat.
However, the question is, what happens next? Well, it's usually an idea to look at past precedent for an answer, and for that, I turn to Aden in the mid-60s. Britain had held Aden as a colony for over a century, but in the mid-60s, an insurgency (or "emergency", as it is known) began. British troops clashed with Arabs and, in 1967, the British troops withdrew. Between the time that Britain announced the withdrawal and it actualyl taking place, the terrorist organisations within Aden stepped up their attacks in order to make it look like htey were forcing the British out.
I am not saying that this will happen in Iraq, but I wouldn't be surprised if the insurgency increased in intensity (beyond its already bloody level). However, this is not Aden in 1967, this is Iraq, 2006 (or 2007, as it will almost certainly be). Afte the US withdrawal, the British will probably hang around with NATO and a few others, as we are in Afghanistan. However, I anticipate that the country, with no strong military presence, will descend even further into Civil War.
This leaves us with a conundrum, while it is undoubtedly best for American and British citizens if we withdraw, as it will decrease the risk from terrorism, it is unlikely to end happily for the Iraqis. Civil war, bombings, murders, all this will, most likely, continue. So, what's the answer.
The truth is, there is no easy answer. It was always going to end this way, after poor planning, poor intelligence and poor execution of what little plan there was, what else could happen but this, and how else could it have ended? This is a sad truth, but it will not be the Americans or the british that suffer from their poor planning, it will be the Iraqi people.
However, the question is, what happens next? Well, it's usually an idea to look at past precedent for an answer, and for that, I turn to Aden in the mid-60s. Britain had held Aden as a colony for over a century, but in the mid-60s, an insurgency (or "emergency", as it is known) began. British troops clashed with Arabs and, in 1967, the British troops withdrew. Between the time that Britain announced the withdrawal and it actualyl taking place, the terrorist organisations within Aden stepped up their attacks in order to make it look like htey were forcing the British out.
I am not saying that this will happen in Iraq, but I wouldn't be surprised if the insurgency increased in intensity (beyond its already bloody level). However, this is not Aden in 1967, this is Iraq, 2006 (or 2007, as it will almost certainly be). Afte the US withdrawal, the British will probably hang around with NATO and a few others, as we are in Afghanistan. However, I anticipate that the country, with no strong military presence, will descend even further into Civil War.
This leaves us with a conundrum, while it is undoubtedly best for American and British citizens if we withdraw, as it will decrease the risk from terrorism, it is unlikely to end happily for the Iraqis. Civil war, bombings, murders, all this will, most likely, continue. So, what's the answer.
The truth is, there is no easy answer. It was always going to end this way, after poor planning, poor intelligence and poor execution of what little plan there was, what else could happen but this, and how else could it have ended? This is a sad truth, but it will not be the Americans or the british that suffer from their poor planning, it will be the Iraqi people.
posted by CJM | 7:09 PM
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